Ancient dogmatic texts and Hollywood blockbusters have a lot to answer for. While many of us remain in denial regarding the ongoing ecological catastrophe, prophecies of doomsday remain in vogue. Perhaps this reflects a sub-conscious desire to go out with a bang at the hands of some cosmic threat, rather than depart with a whimper, with no-one but ourselves to blame. As we approach the latest in a long line of unspecified Armageddons (but no doubt involving human sacrifice, and dogs and cats living together), we might take a break from misinterpreting the Maya calendar, and consider what befell the Maya civilization at the end of its Classic period.
Maya civilization dates back to at least 1800 B.C., the beginning of its so-called Preclassic Era. Preclassic archaeological sites are found throughout Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula of modern-day Mexico, with others being discovered as far away as Honduras, El Salvador and central Mexico. The Classic era was defined by the development of sophisticated and populous city-states, dating from about 250 A.D. These included the famous city of Tikal, Guatemala, which reached its zenith in the Classic era, serving as an important centre of trade and governance. However, Tikal and many other Maya cities were slowly abandoned between 800 and 1000 A.D., a period known as the Terminal Classic Period, or TCP.
What befell the Maya is one of the great mysteries of archaeology. Proposed causes include the spread of infectious disease, the collapse of trade routes, revolution, or military defeat, but none of these factors alone can satisfactorily explain the Maya collapse. An alternative possibility is that recurrent episodes of drought ultimately led to depopulation and the decline of the cities. There is evidence for multiple droughts in the Yucatan Peninsula during the TCP, but similar droughts were not unheard of throughout the golden age of Maya civilization. Strong evidence supporting the drought hypothesis remained elusive…until recently.
Two researchers at the University of Southampton, Martín Medina-Elizalde and Eelco Rohling, took a closer look at the physical data on the TCP droughts, and used it to quantify annual precipitation (principally rain and drizzle). The data was derived from four sources:
1) A stalagmite (a cave formation that rises from the floor, due to the dripping of mineralised solutions from the roof) named Chaac, after the Maya rain god.
2) The shells of aquatic snails in Lake Chichancanab.
3) The shells of backwater ostracods (a type of crustacean) in Lake Punta Laguna.
4) The sediment of Lake Chichancanab.
The first three materials all contain calcium carbonate (CaCO3), a molecule which contains three oxygen atoms. Oxygen can exist as one of three stable isotopes, which differ in their number of neutrons. These isotopes are 16O, 17O, and 18O, with eight, nine and ten neutrons respectively, and eight protons in each case. The superscript numbers for each isotope represent the mass of the atom, derived from the number of particles (protons+neutrons) in the atomic nucleus. Rainwater is enriched for 16O, as 18O more readily evaporates from seawater. As a result, the more it rains, the more 16O is present in the sea. Hence, by measuring the ratio of 18O to 16O (or δ18O) in a layer of calcium carbonate, it is possible to determine the amount of rainwater that fell during the layer’s formation. The researchers of the current study examined the δ18O within the stalagmite Chaac , as well as in the snail and crustacean shells. From this, they were able to deduce that the Yucatan Peninsula had been subjected to several long periods of drought.
The fourth record is based on a separate natural phenomenon. Gypsum, a soft mineral, is found in Lake Chichancanab. Evaporation of water in the lake causes the concentration of gypsum in the remaining water to increase. By examining the amount of gypsum present in sediment at the bottom of the lake, it is possible to infer changes in the amount of rainfall.
The authors used the available data to construct a simulation of δ18O fluctuations in Lake Chichancanab. This system was then used to examine changes in δ18O, following perturbations to the simulation. By adjusting the amount of summer rainfall to that predicted by the stalagmite, the model predicted lake δ18O values phenomenally close to those of the shell samples. In addition, the model predicts a 30% reduction in the Lake Chichancanab water levels during droughts in 830 and 928 A.D., in agreement with the high gypsum concentration observed today. Therefore this study has managed to integrate all the available sources of physical data into a single coherent model.
The reduction in rainfall predicted by the model is fairly mild; this suggests that groundwater availability in the Yucatan Peninsula may be particularly sensitive to small changes in rainfall. The periods of drought observed are associated with a decrease in 16O; such decreases today are counter-balanced by heavy rain caused by storms and hurricanes. Hence, a decrease in such storms may have brought about the observed periods of drought.
Classic Maya Civilization did not go out with a bang, and neither will the modern world. What we face may lack the spectacle of planets colliding, but shares the potentially deadly effects. The discussed study not only informs us of the region’s past, but has very real implications for the future – small decreases in the annual rainfall of the Yucatan Peninsula are predicted in the near future, which may again have a dramatic effect on groundwater availability. This could have very serious consequences; the Maya population of the lowlands dropped from four million people in 800 A.D. to a few hundred thousand people a mere 150 years later. To anticipate our future, we need to look to the decline of the Maya, not to their calendar.

